04.03.2015 - Volatility on the markets has decreased
The price of euro yesterday showed moderate growth against the publication of data on the growth of retail sales in Germany, which totaled 2.9% against the expected 0.5%. At the same time investors pleased with the data from Spain, where the number of unemployed unexpectedly fell by 13,5 thousand, against the expected growth of 10,5 thousand. Today, the course of trading will be affected by retail sales data in the euro area (10:00 GMT), the service PMI in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT and non-manufacturing PMI in the US (15:00 GMT). Particular attention should be paid to the publication of the Beige Book , which indicates the state of the economy in the 12 federal districts of the United States. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the British pound was unable to resume growth despite the strong data on construction PMI in the country, which rose in February by 1.0, to 60.1, against an expected decline to 59.0. Today the dynamics of trading will depend on the statistics on the service PMI in the UK (09:30 GMT). Given investors' expectations for improvement in the labor market in the United States, the statistics that will be published on Friday, the price of the pound continues to fall against the US dollar. We maintain a short-term positive outlook for the British pound, but do not exclude a further fall in the near future.
The price of the Japanese yen remained virtually unchanged against the background of the lack of new statements of Japanese politicians and the publication of important macroeconomic statistics in the country. Investors did not rush to accumulate positions in connection with the anticipation of important statistics on the US labor market on Friday. Improvement in unemployment will lead to a strengthening of the US dollar. It is worth noting investors' concerns about the future of Greece. We recall that the Greek crisis leads to increased demand for safety assets like the yen. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese currency.
The price of the Australian dollar continued to consolidate near the levels of the previous day. Increased volatility was caused by the publication of statistics on GDP growth in the 4th quarter of last year. Thus, the economy grew by 0.5%, which is 0.1% better than the previous figure, but 0.2% worse than analysts' forecasts. China's services PMI from HSBC Bank showed an increase in February, rising to 52.0, which is 0.2 better than the previous figure. Tomorrow the course of trading will be affected by the data on retail sales and the trade balance of the country. In general, our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative due to the deterioration in the labor market of the country, falling investment and negative expectations for economic growth in China.
The price of the New Zealand dollar was unable to continue its growth against the background of ambiguous statistics for GDP growth in Australia as well as in connection with the expectation of a stronger US dollar on Friday after the release of the report on the labor market in the country. Tomorrow the course of trading may be affected by the data from Australia. Given the lack of new drivers for growth, the dynamics of prices will depend on external factors. We expect growth of quotations in the near future, but do not exclude the change of the trend to negative.