04.03.2016 - Commodities can be corrected after recent gains

The price of gold continued to rise on the weakening of the US dollar after have been published weak data on the US service PMI, which fell to 49.7 vs. expected 49.8. Labor costs in the 4th quarter increased by 3.3% versus an expected increase of 4.8%. Today will be published statistics on the US labor market for February (13:30 GMT). In case of strong data, the likelihood of interest rate increase this year will grow, which will have a negative impact on the dynamics of the gold price. In addition, it is worth noting the growth in demand for risky assets. Despite the current increased interest in gold, its growth potential is low and we expect the price to drop in the mid-term future.

The price of futures for Light Sweet crude oil continued to rise against the background of the statements of the oil industry in Nigeria for a meeting of representatives of a number of countries that are major oil producers in Moscow on 20 March. On the other hand the quotations of oil are under the pressure of news about the growth on the US stocks and a possible filling capacity of the largest in the US oil storage in Cushing, Oklahoma. At the same time, we exclude the possibility that Iran will join the initiative of the freezing volume of oil production on the January levels. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, and after four days of growth, there is a significant likelihood of prices falling on the background of fixing positions before the weekend and unnecessarily strong growth in the previous days.

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