04.04.2016 - Rising unemployment in the US had a negative impact on the dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed growth against the backdrop of conflicting statistics on the US labor market, which was published on Friday. In March, the unemployment rate rose to 5.0%, which is 0.1% better than the forecast of analysts. At the same time, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 215 thousand against the expected rise by 206 thousand. The average hourly wage increased by 0.3% in March, versus decline of 0.1% in February. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on the index of investor confidence in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT) and the volume of factory orders in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we expect to see a change of the current positive trend to the negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed a strong decline at the end of the week against the background of saving concerns about the country's exit from the European Union structure. The catalyst for the decline was the weak data on the PMI manufacturing, which in March was 51.0 that is 0.4 less than the forecast. A slight impact on the course of trading can provide news on the construction PMI (08:30 GMT). Today, is possible a correction after the sharp fall on Friday. Our medium-term outlook for the coming months remains negative amid the influence of risks associated with the referendum.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. Japanese yen price is rising against the US dollar amid conflicting statistics on the US labor market. In addition, the fall in oil prices supported demand for defensive assets like the yen. It is worth noting that the weak data from Japan will encourage the government and the country's central bank for more active stimulus measures. We expect the resumption of the negative dynamics of the Japanese yen in the medium term and the resumption of the fall in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to decline against the backdrop of the deteriorating situation on the commodity markets, which have a strong impact on the export-oriented economy. It is worth noting that the number of permits issued for new construction in Australia increased by 3.1% in February, against a decline of 7.5% in the previous period. On the other hand, in February retail sale have not changed compared to about 0.3% increase in January. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect the data on the trade balance of the country and the statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy, which may adversely affect the dynamics of trading. Our outlook for the Australian dollar in the near future and medium term remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar shows the correction after recent gains caused by the weakening of the US dollar. Falling oil prices could offset the recent publication of positive data on manufacturing in China and Australia, which are the main trade partners of the country. This week in New Zealand will not be published important macroeconomic data. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and the potential growth of price in the near future is limited.