04.05.2015 - We are waiting for the signal to sell oil

The price of gold fell last week against the background of positive statistics on the labor market in the US, where the number of initial unemployment claims fell to 262 thousand, which was the minimum value since April 2000. At the same time, data on the index of US consumer confidence, which in April was 95.9, also supported the quotes of the dollar. Today, the demand for gold rose slightly due to the fixation positions, as well as because of deterioration in the manufacturing PMI in China, which fell to 48.9, which is 0.5 worse than analysts' forecasts. The focus of investors this week will be on the negotiations between creditors and Greece report on the US labor market, which will be released on Friday. Our medium-term outlook for gold remains positive.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil continues to consolidate near the psychologically important level of 60 dollars per barrel. Waiting for reduction of oil production in the US and increased demand pushed up the price of oil, but we assume that the rise in prices is not reasonable and in the near future we can see the sharp fall in oil prices. Saudi Arabia remains ready to increase oil production to meet the demand for oil in Asia. The conflict in Yemen has a minimal impact on the price of oil at the moment. The deterioration of the manufacturing PMI in China continues to put pressure on the oil quotations. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the oil and wait for a signal for opening short positions.

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