04.05.2016 - The fall of oil is likely to continue in the near future
The price of futures for Light Sweet crude oil is corrected down inside the rising channel and may soon reach its lower boundary and the level of 43 dollars per barrel. According to our estimates, the last weeks of growth were due to increased speculations, especially in China. At the same time, the volume of oil production in the OPEC countries, according to Bloomberg reached the highest level since 1989 and will continue to grow due to competition for the market share. This fact offsets the decline in the US oil production, the volume of which has fallen below 9 million barrels per day. We expect the acceleration of fall of oil prices in the near future with a targets at 36 and 33 dollars per barrel of oil, and the probability of price return to the local maximums near 46-47 dollars per barrel has dropped significantly.