04.07.2016 - Despite the recent growth, there is a risk of falling markets
Futures on US stock indexes today show a positive dynamics, despite of the day off in connection with the US Independence Day. Support for the market in recently has been reducing the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year. On Friday will be published important statistics on the US labor market. Investors are waiting for the start of the season of corporate reporting. According to our estimates, the indexes will soon after a strong growth in recent days.
European stocks today show decline against a background of continued pressure of British referendum results, as well as the publication of weak statistics on the index of investor confidence in the euro area, which has fallen sharply to 1.7 in July, against 9.9 in the previous month. This fact is caused by the expected exit of the UK from the EU. Construction PMI in the UK fell in June to 46.0 against 51.6 in the previous period. Tomorrow we should pay attention to retail sales in the EU. We forecast a drop in the markets of the region in the aftermath of the British referendum.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed growth today. The Australian market was supported by the rise in oil prices, gold and other commodities, as well as data on inflation which growth reduces the likelihood of easing monetary policy in the country. Tomorrow in the country will be published data on the trade balance and retail sales in Australia, as well as the statement of the RBA's on monetary policy. The price of the yen stabilized after strong growth, which supported the Japanese markets. We expect increased volatility in the near future and would like to mention the risks to the region's markets.