04.07.2016 - The Australian dollar continued to rise
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro in recent days rose against the US dollar on the background of the correction and the positive statistics on the labor market in the euro area, where unemployment fell by 0.1% to 10.1% in May. Today activity on the market will be low on the occasion of the US Independence Day. The pressure on the price of the euro will still have the exit the UK from the European Union, and the speculation regarding this process. Today, the course of trading will affect the news on the index of investor confidence in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT). The main event of the week will be the publication of the report on the US labor market on Friday. We forecast a drop in euro price in the short term and the medium term.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed a temporary stabilization after sharp fall caused by the results of the referendum on the country's membership in the EU. Investors are watching comments of politicians on the process of exit of the country from economic bloc. We expect the deterioration in the housing market of the country, the fall in GDP growth and the launch of the asset repurchase program, along with a decrease in the interest rates of the Bank of England, which will lead to a further decline of the British pound in the near future and medium term.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to consolidate. On the one hand demand is supported by the increased interest in defensive assets, but on the other further growth is limited due to the statements of the Bank of Japan intention to use of intervention in case of further yen growth. In addition, Japan's macroeconomic indicators remain weak. Today we do not expect strong movements in price due to the holiday in the US. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but we do not exclude the strengthening of the yen in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar shows growth today after have been published data on inflation from TD Securities, which grew by 0.6% in June, after declining 0.2% in May. This fact eliminates the RBA lowering interest rates in the coming months. It is worth noting that investors are waiting for tomorrow's RBA statement on monetary policy, as well as the publication of reports on the trade balance and retail sales in Australia. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to rise, which was supported by the positive trend of the Australian currency. On the trading dynamics can affect the data on the index of business confidence in the country (22:00 GMT), as well as news from Australia. The current upward momentum is likely to continue in the near future, but in the medium term, we expect prices to fall.