04.08.2015 - The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to decline gradually, despite the data on the Eurozone manufacturing PMI, which rose by 0.2 in July to 52.4. The comparable figure in the US fell to 52.7, compared with an expected increase to 53.6. Personal income and consumer spending in the US rose by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, in line with analysts' expectations. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the data on the labor market in Spain (07:00 GMT) and the volume of factory orders in the US (14:00 GMT). We expect a further decline in the euro this week, but investors' activity will be restrained by anticipation of an important report on the US labor market on Friday.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to consolidate amid uncertainty of investors. Yesterday the market was cheered by the strong statistics on the manufacturing PMI, which rose to 51.9 in July, which is 0.3 better than expected and 0.5 higher than the previous indicator. The mood of investors today will depend on the data on the index of house prices (06:00 GMT) and construction PMI (08:30 GMT). According to our estimates, price consolidation will continue in the near future and then we will see a strong price movement.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to move near the levels of the previous day. Support for the Japanese currency yesterday has become the strong data on the index of activity in the manufacturing sector, and a decline in consumer spending in the US, which was expected by analysts. Investors did not rush to accumulate positions ahead of the publication of important data on the US labor market, which will have a strong impact on the dynamics of the US dollar. Given the predicted tightening of monetary policy in the United States, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed strong growth today after a series of important news. Thus, retail sales in the country grew by 0.7% in June against the forecast of increase by 0.5%, the trade deficit totaled 2.93 billion against the expected increase to 3.06 billion. The most important event of the day was the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates at 2.00%. Despite this, the Australian regulator may lower interest rates in the future, but the rise in prices in the housing market of the country is holding it back from such steps. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar rose against the strengthening of the Australian currency, whose movement has traditionally had a strong impact on the New Zealand currency. On the other hand, investors' activity is constrained by the expectation of the release of an important report on the labor market in New Zealand (22:45 GMT). Waiting for monetary easing and low export prices are the main factors that negatively affect the dynamics of the New Zealand currency.