04.08.2015 - Volatility of the Shanghai index is still high

The US stock market yesterday showed a moderate decline amid falling oil stocks following the price of crude oil. Negative for the market was the news on the reduction of growth in personal spending in June. Thus, the rate fell to 0.2% in line with expectations of analysts, but it was much worse than the growth of 0.7% in May of this year. Today, traders are waiting for release of statistics on the volume of factory orders (14:00 GMT), but their activity will be constrained by the expectations of release of statistics on the US labor market on Friday. We expect consolidation of prices near current levels until the end of the week with a followed strong price movement. Our medium-term outlook remains positive.

Major European stock markets yesterday showed different dynamics. French and German benchmarks rose on positive statistics on the euro area manufacturing PMI, which rose to 52.4 in July versus 52.2 in June. That in the UK rose by 0.5 to 51.9. The price index for housing in the UK rose in August by 0.4%, in line with expectations, but the construction PMI in the country fell to 57.1 against 58.6. Support for the Bulls was the news from Spain, where the number of unemployed decreased by 74 thousand against the expected 45,6 thousand. Our medium-term outlook for the market in the region remains positive.

Major stock indexes in Asia and the Pacific showed unsustainable change. The exception was the Shanghai index, which continues to show a high level of volatility. Negative for the market was the decline of the US stock market against the backdrop of falling oil prices, but the Japanese market was cheered by the strong corporate reports. The weak yen continues to support the growth of financial indicators of local companies. Positive statistics on retail sales growth of 0.7%, which is 0.2% better than expected and the data on the trade balance in Australia have led to a slight increase at the local market. We expect the positive dynamics of stock indexes of region in the medium term.

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