04.08.2016 - The growth of oil prices supported equity markets
US stock indexes showed growth against the publication of positive statistics on the labor market, where the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 179 thousand, against the forecast of 171 thousand. Oil price correction after an extended decline also supported optimism. Today activity on the market will be constrained by the expectation of tomorrow's publication of the labor market report for July. Today, the mood of traders can affect data on factory orders in the US (14:00 GMT) and decision o the Bank of England on monetary policy. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a fall in the near future.
European stock indices are rising on expectations of the Bank of England's decision on monetary policy (11:00 GMT). The probability of a lower interest rate from 0.50% to 0.25% and the resumption of asset purchases under the program of quantitative easing is high, which is positively displayed on the stock markets of the region. On the other hand, this fact has not be able to compensate the negative impact of the UK’s exit from the EU in the medium term, we expect to see a drop on the stock markets of the region. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and according to our estimates the volatility today will be high.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region today increased against the positive influence from the United States, as well as higher commodities prices. Australian investors were disappointed by the weak growth of data on retail sales in June by 0.1% vs expected 0.3%. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data on the index of leading economic indicators, and the average wage in Japan. The activity will be restrained because of waiting for the labor market report in the US that will affect investors' expectations regarding the Fed’s monetary policy. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.