04.10.2016 - Gold fell against the backdrop of the dollar’s growth

The price of gold continued to fall against the strengthening of the US dollar and rising probability of the Fed raising interest rates in December, after has been published positive statistics on the US manufacturing PMI, which rose to 51.5 in September, against 49.4 in the previous month. It is worth noting that gold dynamics also negatively affect the fall in demand for gold in India for 9 consecutive months and days-off in China, which will last until October 9 in connection with the celebration of the founding of the PRC. Support for gold can become a reduction on the stock markets, which will increase the demand for protective assets. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, and the potential for further drop has fallen.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued to grow, but for continuation of these dynamics are needed additional incentives. The market is skeptical about the possibility of reaching a final agreement between the two countries regarding the reduction of OPEC's oil production to 32,5-33,0 million barrels per day and its execution. The official meeting of OPEC will be held in November, and until that time, volatility will remain high. Drilling activity in the US rose for 14 weeks from the last 15, but the volume of oil production does not show growth. We expect a soon change of the current rising impulse to a negative with potential of reduction by 15-20%.

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