04.10.2016 - The potential of the current rising impulse on the markets remains low
American stock indexes showed a slight decline yesterday, despite a number of positive factors, including rising oil prices, the positive statistics on the US manufacturing PMI, which rose in September to 51.5, which is 2.1 more than the previous indicator, as well as rumors about the decline of the claim by the US Department of Justice to Deutsche Bank to 5.4 billion dollars against 14 billion previously. The main focus this week will be on the labor market data in the US, which will be released on Friday and may lead to an increase in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in December. Today special attention should be paid to the presentation of the Alphabet. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and expect the beginning of reduction after the current consolidation.
European stock indexes are currently increasing due to declining concerns about the situation with a lawsuit against Deutsche Bank, the amount of which can be significantly reduced from the previous level of 14 billion dollars. Construction PMI in the UK rose to 52.3 in September from 49.2 in August. Investors remain wary of the negative effects from the exit of Great Britain from the EU. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect news on retail sales in the euro area. In the near future the situation on the markets will remain volatile and after the consolidation, we expect a drop in European markets.
Stock indexes in Australia and Japan today showed growth on the back of improved sentiment in the US, after the publication of strong statistics on manufacturing activity in the country. In China continues holidays that will last until 9 October. In Australia, the RBA published decision not to reduce the interest rate from the current level of 1.50%. Support for the Japanese market is the decline of the yen, the likelihood of the continuation of which has increased significantly, which will be positive for quotes of export-oriented companies. At the same time, the consumer confidence index in Japan rose in September by 1.0, to 43.0. Our medium-term outlook for the stock indices in the region remains negative.