04.11.2015 - The weak labor market statistics in the New Zealand has led to a drop in NZD/USD
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to fall against the US dollar after the speech of the head of the ECB regarding the possible strengthening of measures to combat deflationary risks in the euro area. Thus, the ECB may revise the parameters of monetary policy in the euro area at the next meeting on 3 December. At the same time, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in December rose and investors await data on the US labor market, which will be published on Friday. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the news on service PMI in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT), the non-productive PMI in the US (15:00 GMT), the US trade balance (13:30 GMT), as well as the speech of Janet Yellen (15:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for the increased volatility at the end of the week.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to consolidate due to the anticipation of tomorrow's Bank of England decision on interest rates, which according to our forecast will remain unchanged. The rhetoric of the Bank of England will affect investors' expectations regarding the timing of rising interest rates in the country. In addition, tomorrow will be published quarterly report on inflation in the UK. Today, the mood of traders will be affected by the data on service PMI (09:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains pessimistic.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen declined due to technical factors, as well as the strengthening of the US dollar against the yen amid growing investor confidence in the Fed's tightening of monetary policy in December. Support for the yen today was the news on consumer confidence in the country in October to 41.5 against 40.6 in September. The market is waiting for the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of Japan, where it was decided not to increase the amount of stimulus measures in the country. In the coming days, the price movement will be constrained by the expectation of release of statistics on the US labor market on Friday. We expect the yen to drop later this year.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed growth, but it could not continue despite the publication of a more positive statistics on the country's trade balance deficit which decreased due to the increase in exports to 2.32 billion in September, against 2.71 billion in August. It is worth noting that the decline in prices for iron ore, coal and other commodities continued in the future, the trade balance is likely to deteriorate. Retail sales in September increased by 0.4%, in line with analysts' forecasts. In general, the prospects for growth in the Australian economy has improved, but the fall of the national currency of the country according to our forecasts will continue in the medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to decline after the publication of weak statistics on the labor market in the country. Thus, the unemployment rate rose in the third quarter to 6.0%, which was 0.1% less than the previous figure. At the same time, the employment rate decreased by 0.4%. Analysts had forecasted a growth rate by 0.4%. The weak inflation and deterioration in the labor market will encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to reduce interest rates at the next meeting. We expect a continuation of the negative dynamics of prices in the medium term.