04.03.2014 - The situation in Ukraine remains the focus of foreign exchange and stock markets of the world

U.S. stock indexes fell amid rising tensions over Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine. Investors are preparing to revise their strategy in the case of escalation. Among macrostatistics that influenced the course of trading we should mention the data on the manufacturing PMI in Eurozone, which coincided growth expectations to 53.2 and the U.S., where the index rose to 53.2, but turned out 0.1 worse than was expected. Personal spending and incomes of consumers in the U.S. rose in January respectively by 0.4% and 0.3%. During his speech, the ECB head Mario Draghi has not announced the plans for the central bank's monetary policy due to the fact that the meeting of the central bank will be held on Thursday.

On background of strong data from the United States euro fell to levels of the previous days. We expect that the price of euro will reach 1.37. Today in the Eurozone will be published data on industrial inflation (10:00 GMT). The main event of the week, which will help determine the medium-term price direction will be the speech of Mario Draghi after the ECB meeting and interest rate decision of the centr

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound hardly reacted to the news about the growth of the manufacturing PMI sector of the UK to 56.9, which met analysts' expectations. At the same time, the number of permits for mortgage lending in January increased by 4 thousand to 77 thousand. It should be noted that stimulation of the housing market in the UK was one of the drivers of growth in the economy and contributed to the reduction of unemployment. Today we should pay attention to the data on the of business activity in the construction sector. On Thursday the Bank of England make a statement. We keep medium and long term positive outlook for the British pound.

Demand for the Japanese yen, as a protective asset yesterday rose amid Russian troops entering Ukraine. After the publication of strong U.S. data and as a result of strengthening of the dollar, we saw a correction of USD/JPY. For the weaker yen contributed data on the annual growth of the monetary base in February to 55.7%, 54.2% against the forecast. We expect a further decline in prices of USD/JPY in the short term, with a view of about 100.00. At the same time, due to the loose monetary policy of the country we maintain long-term positive outlook for the pair.

Australian Dollar continues gradual growth within the local downstream channel. Statistics published today, could increase volatility, but could not significantly affect the price of AUD/USD. Thus, the trade deficit fell to 10.1 billion, as expected, the interest rate has remained unchanged at 2.50%, while the number of permits for new housing construction increased by 6.8% in January. Besides the Reserve Bank of Australia said that they expect decline in inflation, wages and credit to the private and public sector. In this regard, we maintain long-term and medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.

The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate above 0.8350, despite the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This factor indicates the strength of bulls. Lack of important macroeconomic of New Zealand leads to low volatility on a pair. Increase in volatility is possible on Wednesday after data on the U.S. labor market. To determine the future direction of the New Zealand dollar we need new signals. We maintain a long-term negative outlook for the price of NZD/USD.

Rising prices for Light Sweet crude oil were supported by increased tensions regarding Russian troops entering the territory of Ukraine. Russia is one of the largest producers of oil and gas in the world and trade sanctions from Western countries may lead to an increase in oil prices on world markets. In addition, the rise in prices was supported by positive data from the U.S., which is the largest consumer of oil in the world. We expect the resolving the conflict in Ukraine and to reduce oil consumption in the U.S. due to warming. We maintain a long-term negative outlook.

The price per troy ounce of gold reached $ 1350 and will likely continue to increase amid concerns over escalating conflict in the Crimea. Uncertainty about the future prospects of rising stock markets also contributes to the revision of the investment portfolios towards defensive assets like gold. At the same time it became known that gold mining in Australia (the second country in the world in production of gold) rose in 2013 to a high of 10 years. We maintain our positive medium and long term outlook for gold.

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