04.08.2014 - ​Unemployment in the United States has caused the correction of euro

In the last trading session of the week, we saw the rise of the euro on the background of weaker-than-expected data on the labor market in the United States, where the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 0.1% in July, up to 6.2%. At the same time, the number of non-farm payrolls rose by 209 thousand, compared with a rise of 298 thousand in June. Positive for the market has become the data on consumer confidence in July, which showed an increase by 0.5 to 81.8. Among the reasons the growth of quotations of euro should also be called a technical correction and fixation of positions before the weekend. Today we should pay attention to the statistics on the index of investor confidence in the Eurozone (08:30 GMT) and the producer price index (09:00 GMT). The medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect continued negative dynamics in the near future.

Euro Index Forecast

The price of the British pound has continued to fall, despite the weakening of the American currency. The reason for the decline was the data on the manufacturing PMI, which fell to its lowest level this year, 55.4, against the previous figure of 57.2. At the same time, the manufacturing sector continues to grow and create new jobs. Today, trade dynamics will depend on the construction PMI (08:30 GMT). We expect price stabilization of the British pound in the near future, after which the growth of price can resume. We maintain our positive outlook for the medium-term, but the accumulation of positions is constrained by a referendum on Scottish independence, which will be held in September.

The price of the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar after the release of negative data on the labor market in America, but today the Japanese currency once again began to devalue due to the overall negative trend on the background of a soft monetary policy in Japan and its tightening in the United States. In addition, today was released a report on the monetary base in Japan, which showed growth of the indicator to 42.7%, compared with an expected 41.2%. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Japanese yen.

The price of the Australian Dollar continued its positive momentum on Friday, when the quotes of the Australian dollar strengthened on the weakening dollar. Positive factor today was the news on the growth of retail sales in June by 0.6%, which is 2 times better than expected. Tomorrow we expect growth of volatility in connection with the release of important macro on the trade balance of the country and the statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia. We expect the resumption of downward dynamics and maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.

The price volatility of the New Zealand dollar fell sharply in recent trading days, and despite the rise in price on Friday amid weak data on the labor market in the United States, the New Zealand currency quotes continue to move in a sideways channel. Increased volatility in price is expected tomorrow evening after the release of statistics on employment in New Zealand. Obviously the price will not be much reduced in the near future and we need additional signals to determine the medium-term.

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