05.01.2015 - ​Markets expect the Fed meeting minutes

US stock indexes finished the last trading session of the week with multidirectional dynamics against the background of weak economic data. Thus, the manufacturing PMI fell to 55.5 in December, compared with an expected 57.6. At the same time, construction spending in November fell by 0.3%. Today, investors will not rush with actions due to the waiting publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and labor market data in the US on Friday. We forecast decrease in the indexes in the medium term.

USSPX500 in May 2014

European stocks started the year with a decline. The reason for the fall of the major European indexes has become weak data on the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone and the UK which decreased to 50.6 and 52.5 respectively, against the expected 50.8 and 53.7. At the same time, investors are awaiting confirmation of the words of the head of the ECB about the readiness to intensify its asset purchase program to support the region's economy and fight deflationary risks. Negative also remains political crisis in Greece, which can lead to the exit of the country from the euro zone and default on obligations. Today, investors were pleased with the data on the labor market in Spain, where the number of unemployed fell in December by 64.4 thousand, and the index of investor confidence in the euro area that increased to 0.9, compared with an expected reduction to 0.9. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook, and see no reason for significant growth in the medium term.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed growth. Drivers of growth in China were shares of consumer companies and airlines. At the same time, quotations of energy companies continued to decline following the price of oil. Production PMI in Japan was 52.0 in December that 0.1 worse than the previous figure. The same indicator in Australia fell to 46.9 against 50.1 in November. Tomorrow the course of trading will be affected by the data on the trade balance of Australia. The growth in the markets may continue in the near future, but its potential is limited. Our negative medium-term outlook for the markets of the region remains negative.

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