05.02.2015 - Drop of oil led to a decrease of the energy sector shares

US stock markets have stopped the growth on the background of a drop in prices of biotech companies, as well as in connection with the resumption of the downward movement in oil prices. Earlier, oil prices showed maximum growth since 2009. Non-manufacturing PMI in the US rose by 0.5 to 56.7 in January, and data on new jobs showed a decrease in the rate of growth to 213 thousand in January. Today, the course of trading will also be affected by the labor market data and the US trade balance (13:30 GMT), but the main event of the week will be the release of a report on the labor market tomorrow. Our long-term outlook remains positive, but in the near future we can see the continuation of the downward price movement.

December 22, 2014 USSPX Graph

European stock indexes show the uncertainty on the background of the Greek debt crisis. So, on the one hand the expected agreement between creditors and Greece, but the ECB stated its refusal to accept Greek bonds as collateral for loans. The market was supported by the news of the forecast increase in economic growth of the euro area due to the fall of the euro and lower oil prices. According to analysts Eurozone GDP will grow by 1.3% in 2015 and by 1.9% in 2016. It is worth noting the fall of the index of business activity in the Eurozone retail sector to 46.6, which is worse than the previous figure of 1.1 and indicates the deterioration of the situation in the region. Our medium-term outlook remains positive due to the program of quantitative easing, but we may see a drop in the markets in the near future.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a deterioration in investor sentiment on news of the ECB on refusal to accept Greek bonds as collateral for loans. We recall that Greece's debt crisis threatens the financial stability of Europe. At the same time, it is worth noting the fall of commodity companies after the resumption of a downward trend in oil prices. Sales of new homes in Australia fell by 1.9% in December, while retail sales rose by 0.2%, which is 0.1% worse than forecast. Tomorrow trading dynamics will depend on the statistics on the US labor market. We forecast a decline of markets in the region in the near future, but in the medium term the situation is likely to improve.

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