05.02.2015 - Traders are waiting for the statement of the Bank of England
The price of euro continued to decline against the background of the ECB's refusal to take Greek debt as collateral for ordinary credits. This fact leads to increased concerns about the settlement of the debt crisis in Greece, whose government has previously stated its intention to reach an agreement with creditors until early June of this year. The dollar was also supported by data on non-productive PMI which rose to 56.7, which is 0.1 better than expected. The service PMI in the Eurozone also rose to 52.7 against 52.3 expected and retail sales in December increased by 0.3% in the Eurozone. Today, the course of trading will be influenced by the economic outlook of the European Commission (10:00 GMT), as well as data on the labor market and the US trade balance (13:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions on the euro.
The price of the British pound continues to consolidate around the level of 1.52, after recent gains. Earlier the reason for the increase in price became strong data on the construction sector of the country. Yesterday quotes were supported by news on the growth of business activity index in the service sector in the UK, which in January rose to 57.2, which is 0.6 better than expected. Today we will see increased volatility on the background of statements by the Bank of England on monetary policy. At the same time, investors will not rush to build up positions before the publication of important statistics on the labor market in the US tomorrow. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but in the near future the price will continue to move around current levels.
The price of the Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar on the background of renewed deterioration of investors' attitude to risk in connection with the debt problems in Greece. Investors traditionally buy the yen as a defensive asset in case of growth of risks on the market. It is worth noting traders cautious before tomorrow's publication of data on the US labor market, which may lead to the strengthening of the dollar. In addition, tomorrow will be published data on the index of leading economic indicators in Japan. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook.
The price of the Australian dollar dropped yesterday against the strengthening of the US dollar after the release of statistics on the service PMI in the United States. Today the reason for the decline was the news on reduction of new home sales in Australia by 1.9% in December and retail sales growth of 0.2%, versus an expected increase of 0.3%. Tomorrow trading dynamics will depend on the statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which will explain the reasons for the RBA interest rate cut by 0.25% to 2.25%. Volatility also will increase after data on the US labor market. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the New Zealand dollar indicates low volatility today due to the holiday in the country. It is worth noting that earlier in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said it is not going to cut interest rates and interest rate policy of keeping the is the most adequate for the moment. Despite this, the price growth of the New Zealand dollar is limited by the strengthening of the US dollar and the trade deficit of the country, which emerged amid falling export prices. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the New Zealand dollar and recommend holding short positions.