05.02.2016 - The data on unemployment in the US may lead to strong price movements

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to show strong growth after a long period of consolidation. This movement is caused by skepticism regarding a possible increase in interest rates the Federal Reserve in the United States against the backdrop of weakening macroeconomic indicators in the country that puts pressure on the US dollar. The negative data also was on the reduction of the volume of factory orders, which fell by 2.9% against the forecast of decline by 2.5% in December. Today, the central event will be the publication of the labor market report for January (13:30 GMT). Improved indicators will support the dollar. We should also pay attention to the statistics on the volume of industrial orders in Germany in December (07:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative after the completion of the current growth of the market in return to speculation about further easing of the ECB on monetary policy in March.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed decline yesterday on the background of statements by the Bank of England on monetary policy, the parameters of which have remained unchanged. It should be noted that the forecasts of the regulator for the country’s GDP growth in 2016 was lowered to 2.2% compared to the previously expected growth of 2.5%. This fact will put pressure on the price of the British currency. According to our estimates, after the completion of the current US dollar's decline, will return the market fears about the referendum on the UK’s exit from the EU.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued to rise against the background of the US dollar's decline, which was due to speculation about saving the Fed interest rates unchanged this year. It is worth noting that investors are waiting for the publication of an important report on the labor market today, which will have a key influence on the dynamics of prices in the coming days. Next week holidays in China will reduce the volatility and interest in defensive assets. On Monday, we you should pay attention to the data on balance of payments in Japan. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for the resumption of the fall of the yen price.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar lowered after strong growth against the background of a number of factors. Thus, investors fix long positions after the RBA issued a forecast on GDP growth of the country, which totaled 3.0% at end-2017, which is 0.5% worse than the November’s forecast. At the same time in mid-2016, inflation in the country will be 1.5% versus previously expected2.0%. We recall that the target range for inflation is 2-3%. The main risk for the country is the situation in China. Speculation on a possible continuation of the RBA lowering rates this year, will lead to a drop in the Australian dollar.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has corrected down following the Australian currency, as well as due to the fixation of positions after strong growth. The reason for the recent increase in prices was the weakening of the US dollar, as well as the publication of unexpectedly strong report on the labor market in New Zealand, where the unemployment rate dropped to 5.3%. Our medium-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar remains negative due to the expectation of a further reduction of the RBNZ interest rate.

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