05.02.2016 - US labor market will be in the spotlight today
US indexes stabilized in anticipation of today's publication of important statistics on the labor market in the country (13:30 GMT). Improving indicators lead to an increase in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year. The main factors that continue to put pressure on the US markets is slowing growth in the world economy, the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators in the US and a reduction in profits of US corporations. It is worth noting the strong dependence of investor sentiment from the oil price dynamics. We forecast a drop on the markets of the country in the coming months.
Major European stock indexes yesterday showed different dynamics on the background of publication of the European Commission's forecasts for GDP growth in the euro area by 1.7% in 2016 versus the previous estimate of 1.8%. In addition, the ECB President said about the negative impact of global factors on inflation in the euro area. The Bank of England decided to leave the monetary policy parameters unchanged and the possibility of raising interest rates this year in the UK declined. Today, investors were disappointed by the news from Germany, where in December the volume of industrial orders fell by 0.7% against growth of 1.5% in the previous period. We expect the resumption of growth in the European markets in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region did not show uniform dynamics today. Chinese investors are in no hurry to accumulate new positions due to the holidays next week on the occasion of the New Year according to the lunar calendar. The weakening of the dollar against the yen has led to a decline on the stock market of Japan. The dynamics of trading on the next week in Japan will again depend on the price of the yen, while the Australian index will affect commodity prices. The strong influence on investor sentiment may have data on the US labor market, which will be published today (13:30 GMT). Volatility on the markets will remain in the near future. The Japanese market has considerable potential for upward correction.