05.03.2015 - Markets are waiting for new drivers for growth
US stock indexes yesterday showed a slight decrease. Statistics on the number of new jobs in the US private sector showed an increase of 212 thousand, which is 7 thousand worse than the forecast. At the same time, the non-manufacturing PMI showed an increase to 56.7, which is 0.2 better than analysts' expectations. Beige Book pointed to moderate growth in the economy, but there was a reduction of investment in oil and gas sector and the negative impact of the strengthening of the dollar and the drought on the agricultural sector. Investors are awaiting tomorrow's report on the labor market in the country. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on initial unemployment claims and factory orders in the US (13:30 GMT). We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for the US market.
The main European stock indexes showed a slight increase on the background of positive statistics and expectations of today's statement of the ECB on the details of the launch of quantitative easing and monetary policy (13:30 GMT). Thus, investors were pleased with the data on the growth of retail sales in the euro area by 1.1% against the expected 0.2%. Service PMI in the Eurozone fell by 0.2 to 53.7, and in the UK by 0.5 to 56.7. Today, the course of trading will also be affected by the statement of the Bank of England on monetary policy (12:00 GMT) and tomorrow we should pay attention to GDP growth in the euro area. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for European markets.
Most markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a fall. The exception was the Japanese market. The reason for the negative was the decline on the US stock markets. To continue the upward movement, the market needs new incentives. In China, announced the forecasted growth of 7.0% in 2015. According to statements by the Prime Minister of the State Council, the current levels of growth are the "new norm" and have positive aspects including the ability to focus on the quality of the reforms. Retail sales in Australia rose by 0.4%, in line with analysts' forecasts. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for the markets of the region, but we note a weakening of the rising impulse.