05.04.2016 - The RBA has kept interest rates at 2.00%
Currency trading and the euro. Price euro continues to consolidate after recent gains caused by speculations on relatively slow increase of the Fed interest rates. It is worth noting that tomorrow will be published the minutes of the previous meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, and the minutes of the ECB meeting will be published on Thursday. Today will be published data on the service PMI in the Eurozone (08:00 GMT) and retail sales in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT). In the US will be released the statistics on the trade balance (12:30 GMT) and non-manufacturing PMI (14:00 GMT). We continue to expect a decline in the euro against the US dollar in the medium term and the potential of the current growth is limited.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound shows an increased level of volatility. Today will be published the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee and the data on the country's service PMI (08:30 GMT). Despite the weakening of the US dollar British currency quotes are under pressure of the risks associated with a possible exit of the country from the European Union. Strong influence on the course of trading at the end of the week will have data on the country's industry. We expect a continuation of the negative dynamics of the pound after the current consolidation and maintain a negative outlook for the coming months.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. Price of the Japanese yen continues to strengthen against the US dollar amid falling oil prices, which encourages the purchase of defensive assets like the yen. In addition, the Fed expectation of softer actions this year have a negative impact on the US dollar. Inflation in Japan remains low due to falling oil prices. Today was published positive statistics on the growth of average wages in February compared to the same period of the last year by 0.9%. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook for the yen and wait for the resumption of its fall in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to decline after the publication of negative statistics on the trade balance of the country, whose deficit totaled 3.41 billion in February, against 2.94 billion in January. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave interest rates at 2.00%, while the Australian dollar's recent rise is explained by a soft monetary policy in other countries and the recent rise in commodity prices. In the near future dynamics of trading will depend on the on commodity prices and the US dollar's movement. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for the continuation of current negative price dynamics.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand Dollar show strong decline on the background of closing long positions and the weakening of the Australian dollar. The decline in prices for commodities also has a negative effect on the New Zealand dollar. Low inflation in the country may force the RBNZ to lower interest rates. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for further price decline in the near future.