05.04.2016 - We expect a further decline in oil prices

The price of gold showed growth against the background of the resumption of purchases by investors. Support for gold is a speculation about the Fed’s later increase of interest rates, which will have a negative impact on gold as the increase of attractiveness of investment in assets with interest income. It is worth noting that the decline in fears about the global economy has a negative impact on demand for defensive assets like gold. Tomorrow may see increased volatility of the publication of the previous Fed’s meeting minutes. According to our forecast, prices will continue to fall in the near future with a potential target at 1100 dollars per troy ounce.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued to decline against the backdrop of fixing long positions after a strong growth in March and February. Continued negative price dynamics in the near future is the most likely scenario in the absence of any real influence on the meeting of some major oil producers, which will be held in Qatar on 17 April. As a result, we can conclude that the last increase was unjustified and price will return to the level of 30dollars per barrel amid oversupply on the oil market and the growth of inventories. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on oil.

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