05.05.2016 - The Australian dollar rose against the background of positive statistics
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to consolidate after the recent correction, caused by technical factors and the growth of the US dollar. The price of the euro has been negatively affected by the data on retail sales in the Eurozone, which fell by 0.5% in March against the forecast of growth by 0.1%. The volume of factory orders in the US rose by 1.1% in March, after falling by 1.9% in February, which improved sentiments. Investors are waiting for the publication of a report on the labor market in the US tomorrow, which may lead to a further decline in the euro. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but we do not rule out testing of a local maximum near 1.1620.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound is corrected upwards after the recent price reduction caused by the correction of the British pound and the rise of the US dollar. Today will be published statistics on the service PMI in the UK (08:30 GMT), which can support the British currency in the case of better data. According to our estimates, the British pound over the next few weeks will be under pressure of speculations about the possible country’s exit from the European Union. The outlook on the British pound in the near future remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the yen stabilized after the recent decline against the US dollar. In Japan, is the day off and investors will return to the market tomorrow, together with the publication of important statistics from the US that will lead to an increase in price volatility. In case of a fall in the stock markets, we expect further growth of the yen due to increased demand for defensive assets, but on the other hand the Bank of Japan may launch measures to deal with a speculative growth of the yen. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar is corrected upwards today due to technical factors, as well as the publication of positive statistics. Thus, sales of new homes rose by 8.9% in March, retail sales rose by 0.4%, which is 0.3% more than in February, while the country's trade deficit totaled 2.16 billion vs. expected 2.95 billion. Earlier, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key interest rate to 1.75% vs. 2.00% previously, which will put pressure on the price of the Australian currency. According to our estimates, after the completion of the current upward correction, a drop in prices will resume and will increase the likelihood of a correction on commodity markets.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed corrective gains today after declining during the previous days under the pressure of weak statistics on the labor market in the country, the fall of the Australian dollar and the strengthening of the US dollar. We expect preservation of negative dynamics in the medium term, but today corrective gains may continue.