05.06.2015 - Today will be held a meeting of OPEC
The price of gold continues to decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar after the release of positive statistics on initial unemployment claims in the country, which fell to 276 thousand vs. anticipated 280 thousand. The publication of the report the IMF, which has lowered the forecast for US economic growth to 2.5% this year against a previous estimate of 3.1% increase, could not change the mood of investors. In addition, the IMF expects the Fed raising interest rates until the first half of 2016. Today, we are waiting for the increased activity of investors in connection with the release of an important report on the labor market in the US (12:30 GMT), which will affect the expectations of the timing of monetary tightening by the Fed. Our medium-term outlook for gold remains positive, but its price is likely to fall in the near future.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil has continued to decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as on the expectation of the results of today's meeting of OPEC. According to our forecast, oil production quotas will remain at the same level, but the increase in volatility can be caused by the statements of the representatives of the cartel members. US crude oil stocks continue to decline, but the rate of decline remained minimal. We expect that after the meeting of OPEC in the focus of investors will be lifting of sanctions on oil exports against Iran. Our medium-term outlook for oil remains negative despite the seasonal increase in demand for oil. It is also recommended to keep the short positions with the targets of around 52 dollars per barrel.