05.06.2015 - US labor market will be in the focus
US stocks yesterday showed a significant reduction after the IMF cut its forecast for US economic growth to 2.5% from 3.1% previously. At the same time, the IMF analysts predicted the Fed raising interest rates until the first half of 2016. At the same time, labor productivity in the United States declined in the first quarter by 3.1%. The number of initial unemployment claims in the US fell to 276 thousand against the expected 280 thousand. Today is forecasted a strong increase in volatility in connection with the publication of important statistics on the labor market in the US (12:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains positive, despite a possible drop in the near future.
European stocks are down again on the background of the lack of consensus on the Greek reforms that are needed to restructure the country's debt. It is clear that in the coming weeks we will see increased volatility on raised concerns or hopes regarding the Greek crisis. Support for the markets today was the news in terms of industrial orders in Germany, which in April rose by 1.4%, which is 0.8 better than expected. It is worth noting that consumers' expectations for inflation in the UK rose in Q1 to 2.2%, which stimulates an earlier increase in interest rates the Bank of England. Today, attention will be focused on the statistics on unemployment in the US. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but we note the risks associated with the Greek crisis, which may lead to a further drop on the markets in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region reduced after the US and European indexes amid concerns regarding the Greek crisis, as well as the deterioration of the forecast of growth in the American economy in 2015. The index of leading economic indicators in Japan in April increased to 107.2% versus 106.0% in March. On Monday is expected the increased volatility due to today's publication of data on the US labor market. At the same time, will be published data on GDP growth in Japan and the country's balance of payments, and in China will be released the data on the trade balance. We keep medium-term positive outlook for the market in the region, but we can see a significant correction in the near future.