05.07.2016 - We expect a correction on the stock markets
Futures on American stock indexes decline after strong growth in previous days. The reason for the fall is the lack of incentives for growth, investors' concerns about a slowdown in world GDP growth, the decline in commodity prices and the closure of long positions. Today, investors will return to the market after the day off yesterday. The trading dynamics will affect the volume of news on factory orders in the US (14:00 GMT), as well as the speech of President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley (18:30 GMT). Investors are waiting for the publication of important statistics on the US labor market, which will be released on Friday. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect the fall in the coming days.
European stock markets today show a decline amid concerns of slowing global economic growth and expectations of negative dynamics in the region in connection with the exit of the UK from the EU. Besides economic problems, investors are worried about political instability growth in the European Union. It is worth paying attention to the growth of retail sales in the euro area by 0.4% in May, in line with expectations, but at the same time, the market expects the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators in the European countries in the coming months. We forecast a drop on the stock markets of the region in the coming months.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a decline due to falling commodity prices, increasing pessimism on the market, as well as the strengthening of the Japanese yen, which negatively displayed on the shares of Japanese exporters. It is worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia decided not to change the interest rate, but it can soften monetary policy in the coming months. Support for the Chinese market was the statistics on service PMI from Caixin, which rose to 52.7 in June from 51.2 in the previous month. Our forecast for the near future remains negative and we are waiting for increased volatility.