05.09.2016 - Markets show moderate optimism
US stock indexes on Friday showed growth after was published the data on the labor market in the country, which has led to a decrease in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in September, and thus strengthened the optimism on the market. Thus, the unemployment rate was 4.9% vs. expected 4.8%, while US non-farm payrolls in August totaled 151 thousand vs. expected 180 thousand. Today, in the US is a holiday. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect the news on non-manufacturing PMI and dynamics of oil prices. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and despite the possibility of continuing growth in the near future, we keep a medium-term negative outlook.
European stock markets today show weak movement amid uncertainty over future growth prospects of the market. In addition, investors are in no hurry with actions due to the holiday in the US and high volatility on commodity markets. Optimism today supported the news from the UK, where the service PMI rose to 52.9 vs. expected 49.1, while the index of investor confidence in the euro area rose to 5.6 in September from 4.2 in August. Tomorrow, the focus will be on the data on GDP growth in the euro area in the second quarter. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and the growth potential in the near future is limited.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed an increase of optimism caused by expected saving of the monetary policy settings by the Federal Reserve in September, after in the US was published data on the labor market, which was worse than expected. Support for the Japanese market is the decline of the yen and the speech of the Bank of Japan’s chief in which Haruhiko Kuroda said about the readiness to strengthen the incentives in the country. In China, has been published statistics on the service PMI from Caixin, which rose to 52.1, against 51.7 previously. Investors in Australia are waiting for the publication of the statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy tomorrow and the report on GDP growth of the country on Wednesday. Our medium-term outlook for the region's markets remains negative.