05.10.2015 - Statistics on employment in the US has led to an increase in volatility on Friday
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro increases at the beginning of the week after strong volatility on Friday, which was caused by the publication of a report on the US labor market in September. Thus, the increase in the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector totaled 142 thousand, compared with an expected 201 thousand, and the average wage has not increased, which was 0.2% below the forecast. Unemployment remained at 5.2%. As a result, quotations have shown strong growth, but it was short-lived. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the news on the index of investor confidence (08:30 GMT) and services PMI in the Eurozone (08:00 GMT), retail sales in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT) and non-manufacturing PMI in the US (14:00 GMT). In the near future we will likely see continued consolidation of the price, but the medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed strong growth in the last day of the week, but then corrected downwards and at the moment continues to consolidate near the important level of 1.52. The fall of the US dollar was short-lived. It is worth noting that the positive attitude to the pound was also caused by the positive statistics on construction PMI in the UK, which rose to 59.9 in September against the forecast of 57.5. Today will be published data on the service PMI (08:30 GMT), but investors are waiting for the publication of important statistics on industrial production in the UK, which will be released on Wednesday. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but soon is possible the correction of prices.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen after strong volatility on Friday returned to previous levels. Today, negative for the Japanese currency was the news on reduction of growth of wages in the country to 0.5% in August against the same period last year, which is 0.2% worse than the expectations of experts. This fact reinforces the deflationary risks. Rising volatility is forecasted on Thursday following the publication of a large block of vital statistics in Japan and the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect continued consolidation of prices in the next few days.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed growth today after the publication of statistics on inflation in Australia. Thus, the consumer price index from the University of Melbourne has shown growth of 0.3% and for the year inflation rose to 1.9%, against 1.7% in August. This fact increases the probability of keeping interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia at the current levels. Tomorrow is forecasted the increase in volatility following the publication of a report on the trade balance of Australia and announcement of the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to rise gradually. Investors are waiting for today's publication of statistics on the index of business confidence in New Zealand (21:00 GMT), but the course of trading tomorrow will be under a strong impact of statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy. Despite current growth, we expect the resumption of the negative dynamics of prices and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.