05.10.2016 - Gold fell below the psychologically important level of 1300 dollars per troy ounce
The price of gold showed a sharp decline after investors began to cover long positions after breaking through the psychologically important level of 1300 dollars per troy ounce. It is worth noting that the increase in the dollar due to expectations of the Fed raising interest rates in December and positive data on manufacturing activity in the US, which rose in September after a decline in August. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on non-manufacturing PMI and the volume of the US factory orders (14:00 GMT). An additional negative factor for gold is weak demand in India and holidays in China, which will last until 9 October. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but the decline may continue in the near future.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil has continued to rise gradually after the OPEC countries have concluded a preliminary agreement on the reduction of production volumes to 32,50-33,00 million barrels per day. Despite skepticism about achieving a final agreement at the meeting of OPEC in November, the growth may continue in the near future. Investors also fear supply disruptions from the Gulf of Mexico due to a tropical storm. Today, the focus will be data on US oil inventories (14:30 GMT). According to our estimates, the growth potential in the near future is limited and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.