05.10.2016 - Traders are waiting for the report on the US labor market on Friday
American stocks yesterday showed a slight decrease on the background of lowering the IMF forecast of US GDP growth to 1.6%, which is 0.6% less than the previous estimate. Minor support was provided by the rise in oil prices, which is positive for the energy sector. Presentation of new products of Alphabet supported the technology sector. Today, it is worth paying attention to the data on the non-manufacturing PMI and the volume of factory orders in the US (14:00 GMT), as well as data on US oil inventories (14:30 GMT). The focus of investors is drawn to the report on the US labor market, which will be released on Friday and will affect investors' expectations regarding the Fed raising interest rates in December, which would be negative for the stock markets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
European stock indexes are corrected downwards after yesterday's growth. The British market is supported by the pound reduction. At the same time, investors are afraid of negative consequences from the exit of Great Britain from the EU and the current improvement in some macroeconomic indicators may be a temporary effect caused by the positive effect of the devaluation of the national currency. Today, it is worth paying attention to the data on prices in the PMI of euro area (08:00 GMT) and the UK (08:30 GMT), as well as retail sales in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT). The pressure on local indices also has speculations about a possible restriction of the program of quantitative easing in the euro zone, which allows currency union countries to avoid reforms. Our medium-term outlook for the region remains negative and market growth potential in the near future is limited.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region did not show uniform dynamics. Chinese markets will be closed until October 9th. The Japanese market is supported by the fall of the yen, which contributes to the growth of the shares of export-oriented companies. This trend may continue in the near future. Positive statistics on retail sales in Australia, which rose by 0.4% against the forecast increase of 0.2% and a positive trend in oil prices could not lead to an increase of the Australian market. On the other hand, the fall in gold prices is negatively displayed on the value of gold mining companies. We forecast a drop in the region's markets in the medium term, but the yen’s fall may to support the growth of the Japanese indices in the near future.