05.11.2014 - US indexes cannot overcome the historical highs
US stock markets finished yesterday's trading session near the previous close levels. The reason for stopping the growth was reaching the historical highs and the lack of drivers for future growth. Negative was the growth of the US trade deficit by 3.0 billion to 43.0 billion. In addition, the factory orders in September fell by 0.6%, which is 0.2% worse than analysts' forecasts. Investors expect the publication of data on the labor market on Friday and until this moment volatility will remain low. Today it is worth paying attention to labor market data (13:15 GMT) and non-manufacturing PMI (15:00 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the US market.
European stocks showed a decline yesterday against decrease of European Commission forecasts for GDP growth in the euro area in the coming years. Thus, in 2014 is expected the increase by 0.8%, which is 0.4% worse than the previous forecast. In 2015, the European Commission estimated GDP to grow by 1.1% against the previous forecast of 1.7% growth. US data also worsened the mood of investors who are not in a hurry to accumulate positions before tomorrow's statement of the ECB and the Bank of England. It is worth noting that the European Union is preparing another round of sanctions against Russia after the election of the unrecognized republics in eastern Ukraine. Service PMI in Eurozone fell by 0.1 to 52.3. A similar figure for the UK will be published at 9:30 GMT. Also today, we should pay attention to statistics on retail sales in the Eurozone (10:00 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for European markets.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region are moving in different directions. The Japanese market continued to rise after the correction yesterday. The reason for optimism is the statement of the State Pension Fund of Japan on the growth of investment in Japanese companies to 25% from 12% previously. The Chinese market is under the pressure of problems in the construction sector. In addition, the service PMI in China fell to 52.9 in October, that is 0.6 worse than in September. Australian investors are waiting for the data on unemployment in the country data on which will be published tomorrow. We expect further growth of the Japanese market and the fall in the markets of China and Australia in the medium term.