05.12.2014 - Statistics on the labor market in the US will affect the further movement of indexes
US stock markets have stopped growing and continue to consolidate due to the expectation of today's statistics on the labor market in the US (13:30 GMT), where will be published data on the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector. It is worth noting that the number of initial unemployment claims fell by 17 thousand to 297 thousand. Statement by the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi on the decision to launch new incentives will be considered only at the beginning of the next year, disappointed investors. Today, the course of trading will also be affected by the data on factory orders in the US (15:00 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook, but assume continued growth in the near future.
European stocks fell yesterday after Mario Draghi the speech. ECB rate remained unchanged, but the head of the ECB did not make any concrete statements on the start of quantitative easing program. Question of launching of this program will be reviewed at the beginning of next year. At the same time the ECB lowered its forecast for the growth of the euro area economy to 1.0% and 1.5% in 2015 and 2016 against the previous forecast of growth by 1.6% and 1.9%. Today, it is worth paying attention to the preliminary data on GDP growth in the euro area in Q3 (10:00 GMT) and statistics from the US. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for European markets.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed growth, which restrains the uncertainty of investors in the United States. Yesterday's announcement of the ECB disappointed investors. In addition, traders in Japan decided to fix part of positions after strong growth during the week. The index of leading economic indicators fell in Japan in October to 104.0%, which is 1.6% less than the previous figure. Further movement of indexes will depend on the data on the US labor market and statistics on China's trade surplus. We negatively view the medium-term growth prospects of the stock markets in the region, except of the Japanese.