05.02.2014 - Markets are stabilized after a decline on Monday

After a strong decline on the first trading day of the week, the U.S. stock markets have corrected upwards. European indexes ended the trading session with mixed results. The course of trading was influenced by statistics on the production inflation in the euro area, which in December showed a growth of 0.2%, vs. the forecast 0.3%. Factory orders in the United States in December have fallen by 1.5%, with the forecast of decline by 1.9%.

On this background the quotes of euro are consolidating around a strong level of 1.35. Today, the course of trading may be affected by the data on services PMI (09:00 GMT), retail sales in euro area (10:00 GMT), non-farm employment change in the U.S. (13:15 GMT) and non-manufacturing PMI in the U.S. (15:00 GMT).

The central events of this week will be the ECB's statement on monetary policy (Thursday) and the release of data on the unemployment in the U.S. (Frid

The depreciation of the British pound has stopped and now the price is consolidating around 1.6320. the national currency the UK was supported by the data on construction PMI, that jumped to 64.6, vs. expected 61.6. The housing market in the country is one of the drivers of economic growth. Due to the construction we see a steady GDP growth and reduction of unemployment. Today the course of trading can be affected by services PMI (09:30 GMT).

The price of USD/JPY rebounded from the support at 100.90 and is corrected within the downtrend. Monthly report of the Bank of Japan and the index of leading economic indicators will be published on Friday. Besides, the dynamics of prices will depend on the labor market data from the U.S.

The Australian dollar has strengthened significantly after the statement of the RBA head, regarding the fact that the interest rate will be remained at the same level and will not be reduced in the future. Despite this, we maintain a long-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.

The quotes of Light Sweet crude oil rose yesterday after the release of the data, which reported a decline of distillers’ inventories by 2.5 million barrels, because of the weather conditions in the United States. The increase in oil inventories by estimations of analysts was 2.55 million barrels. It should be noted that when the weather will improve, demand for petroleum products will fall and inventories will rise. Record production volumes in the U.S. and rising supplies from the Middle East continue to put pressure on oil quotations.

Gold prices reduced after the growth yesterday. The reason for the decline in prices was the strengthening of the dollar and an increase of U.S. stock markets. Weak demand for physical gold is due to holidays in China, and it also does not contribute to the growth of quotations. The world's largest gold secured exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust does not note outflows for more than a week. We expect that the price will continue to move inside the rising channel.

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