06.02.2015 - Traders are waiting for statistics on the labor market in the US
The price of euro compensated losses of the previous day amid improved investor sentiment regarding the Greek crisis. Thus, investors expect that the ECB's decision on refusal from the Greek bonds as collateral for loans from the ECB will accelerate the process of reaching a consensus on restructuring the country's debt. Greek issue in the near future will continue to influence the course of trading and will increase volatility. Additional driver for growth was data on the growth of industrial orders in Germany, which rose by 4.2% in December, compared to the forecast 1.4%. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on industrial production in Germany (07:00 GMT), the trade balance of France (07:45 GMT). The central event of the week will be the publication of a report on the labor market in the US (13:30 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro and recommend holding short positions on the euro.
The price of the British pound fell against the weakening US dollar. Thus, the trade deficit in the world's largest economy unexpectedly rose to 46.6 billion dollars, compared to the forecast 38.2 billion. Also it should be noted the strong data on business activity in the UK which supported the demand for the pound. In January, the index of house prices in the UK rose by 2.0%, which was the highest increase since May 2014, in spite of this, analysts expect price declines in 2015 by 3-5%. Today it is worth paying attention to the statistics on the UK trade balance (09:30 GMT) and data on unemployment in the US (13:30 GMT). We forecast growth of price in the near future and the increased volatility today.
The price of the Japanese yen remained virtually unchanged and continues to consolidate near the levels of the previous day. Today was published statistics on the index of leading economic indicators, which in December rose to 105.2%, which is 0.3% worse than analysts' forecasts. Today is predicted strong growth of volatility after the release of data on new jobs and the unemployment rate in the United States (13:30 GMT). More likely is the improvement of statistics on the US labor market, which will lead to the fall of the Japanese yen. On Monday will be released the block of important statistics on the balance of payments and consumer confidence in Japan. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen.
The price of the Australian dollar rose slightly today against the background of the report of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy. On the one hand the regulator noted decrease in the number of factors which point on economic recovery, but had not done hints at lowering of interest rates. According to the report the RBA, inflation will remain restrained in the coming 2 years. On Monday, the course of trading will be affected by the speech of the RBA Glenn Stevens. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the New Zealand dollar shows a slight increase on the weakening of the US dollar. The price of the New Zealand currency remains dependent on commodity prices. Investors ignored the statistics on the growth of the unemployment rate to 5.7% in Q4 last year, which is 0.4% worse than the forecast. Today we expect a strong increase in volatility after the release of statistics on the US labor market. Our medium-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar remains negative.