06.04.2015 - Drop of oil will continue
The price of gold has shown strong growth against the publication of weak data on the US labor market, where unemployment was 5.5%, while the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector grew by 126 thousand, which is 120 thousand less than analysts' forecasts. The weakening of growth in the labor market leads to later raise of interest rates of the Fed, which is supported by gold prices. Investors continue to monitor the situation with the negotiations in Greece and creditors to restructure debt. These negotiations steadily increase volatility, but have a limited impact on the medium-term price movement of gold. Our medium-term outlook remains positive.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil corrected upwards after the fall of the US dollar, but resumed a downward movement in connection with a number of fundamental factors that continue to put pressure on oil prices. Thus, the increase in inventories in the United States continues to grow, the amount of spare capacity for the storage of oil is reduced, and the negotiations on Iran's nuclear program have led to a preliminary agreement and the final lifting of sanctions that may occur in June. At the moment, Iran has significant reserves of oil in storage tanks and tankers that can quickly enter the world market and till the end of the year, oil exports from the country can rise by 1.5 million barrels in the first day. In this regard, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook and expect further drop in oil prices to $ 40 per barrel.