06.04.2015 - US traders will return to the market today
The price of euro showed steady growth on Friday and today is consolidated around the level of 1.1000. The sharp increase in prices was caused by weak data from the US, where the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector grew by 126 thousand, against analysts' expectations 246 thousand. For the first time in 12 months rate fell below 200 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at around 5.5%. In connection with the holiday on Friday, traders activity was reduced. Today, US investors will return to the market. Investor sentiment will depend on speculation of further Fed future of monetary policy and data on non-productive PMI in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the program of quantitative easing in the Eurozone.
The price of the British pound showed a sharp increase in the price on Friday amid labor market data in the US, which fell short of analysts' expectations. It is worth noting that investors maintain a positive outlook on employment in the US and is expected the improvement of the situation in relation to warming. Today in UK is a day off, and tomorrow the course of trading will be affected by the minutes of the meeting of the Committee of the Bank of England on monetary policy. Today, volatility will be minimal due to the holiday. We maintain our medium-term negative view on the British pound.
The price of yen has stabilized after strengthening on the background of falling US dollar after the release of a report on the labor market in the country. Trading volumes declined due to the holiday in the US on Friday. Today, after the return of investors to the market, we may see increased volatility. Investors are awaiting the President's speech of the FRB of New York William Dudley (12:30 GMT), in which he may hint at the influence of a weak labor market report on timing of raising interest rates of the Fed. Despite the recent strengthening, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the yen.
The price of the Australian dollar after a sharp rise on Friday, resumed the downward movement amid expectations of tomorrow's publication of statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is likely to lower the interest rate by 0.25% to 2.00%. Falling prices for iron ore and other export commodities, as well as the weakness of the labor market of the country require stimulation of the economy by the regulator. We recommend holding short positions and maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian currency.
The price of the New Zealand dollar has stabilized after strong growth on Friday. Today in New Zealand is a holiday and investorâs activity will be minimal. Tomorrow traders will return to the market and the dynamics of trading will depend on news from Australia, where the RBA may lower interest rates. At the moment, we see no reason for the medium-term growth and may see downward movement in the coming days. For the medium-term forecast we need new signals.