06.04.2016 - The minutes of the Fed and ECB meetings will be in the spotlight this week
US stock indexes showed a decline yesterday despite the rebound in oil prices. It is worth noting that the statement of the head of the Fed, Christine Lagarde, about the growth of risks for the global economy worsened investor sentiment. In addition, the US trade deficit in February totaled 47.1 billion dollars against 45.7 billion dollars in January. On the other hand, support for the market was the news on the non-manufacturing PMI in the country, which rose in March to 54.5, against 53.4 previously. Today is expected the rise in volatility after the publication of the previous Fed meeting minutes (18:00 GMT). In addition, the price of oil will affect the course of trading. Our forecast for next week remains negative.
European stocks today show moderate growth on the background of the oil price recovery. Traders do not rush to open new positions before the publication of the minutes of the previous meeting of the ECB at which was made the decision to strengthen the incentives in the euro area. The negative impact on investor sentiment had news on industrial production in Germany, which declined by 0.5% in February, after rising 3.3% in January. In the near future we may see a drop at European markets, but the medium-term outlook remains negative.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a decline following the US indexes. Concerns about global economic growth prospects adversely affect the course of trading. Strong pressure on Japanese assets has a strengthening of the yen against the US dollar. The Japanese authorities do not take steps to weaken the yen, but we expect the beginning of the struggle with the strengthening of the yen in the near future. In China today, was published the positive news on the growth of the service PMI calculated by Caixin, which rose by 1.0 to 52.2 in March. Our medium-term outlook for the region's markets remains positive and the strongest rebound after the recent decline is possible in Japan.