06.04.2016 - The yen continued to rise

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to consolidate against the US dollar amid expectations of today's publication of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes (18:00 GMT), as well as minutes of meetings of the ECB, which will be released tomorrow. Today, the course of trading will affect the data on the volume of industrial production in Germany. According to our estimates, the growth of the Fed's interest rate will be faster than expected at the moment, and soft monetary policy of the ECB will stimulate the euro decline against the US dollar. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and the potential of the current growth in the near future is limited.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to fall despite the publication of important statistics on service PMI in the UK, which rose to 53.7 in March from 52.7 in February. Recently, the main factor that affects the dynamics of the price of the British pound remains speculation about a referendum on the country's membership in the European Union. Our forecast for the near future remains negative and we may see increased volatility at any time, against the publication of the results of surveys on the referendum.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to rise against the US dollar amid falling oil prices, which maintains the demand for defensive assets, as well as due to the weakening of the US dollar. Today the volatility may increase amid the publication of the previous meeting of the US Federal Reserve minutes (18:00 GMT). On Friday will be published important reports on the balance of payments and the consumer confidence index in Japan. Given the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expected strengthening of the US dollar, we expect a decline in the yen in the medium term.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar today corrected upwards against the background of positive statistics on the service PMI in China, which rose to 52.2 in March, up from 51.2 in February. In addition, the rebound in oil prices supported the bulls. It is worth noting that we expect a further decline in commodity prices, which will be negatively displayed on the data on the trade balance of the country, together with the expected strengthening of the US dollar will be the basis for further price reduction. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar rose against the background of the correction and support from commodity prices and the dynamics of the Australian dollar. The recent improvement in the trade balance of the country supported the price of the New Zealand dollar, but low inflation in the country continues to encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lower interest rates. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the New Zealand dollar.

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