06.05.2015 - ​Unexpectedly weak data on the US trade balance has led to the fall of the dollar

Currencies trading and the euro. The price of euro rose yesterday on the background of improved growth forecasts for the euro area economy from the European Commission. Thus, it is predicted that this year's GDP of monetary union will grow by 1.5% against the February forecast of growth of 1.3%. Incentives for growth was the fall of the euro against the background of the quantitative easing program and the reduction in oil prices. It is worth noting the weak data on the US trade balance deficit which rose sharply to 51.4 billion in March against the forecast of 41.2 billion. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the Eurozone service PMI (08:00 GMT), a change in the number of new jobs in the private sector of the US (12:15 GMT) and the speech of the Fed's chairman Janet Yellen (13:15 GMT). Investors continue to monitor the negotiations with the creditors of Greece. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.

Currencies trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound strengthened yesterday amid weak macroeconomic data from the US, which led to the fall of the dollar. Thus, the US trade deficit rose to its highest level since 1996. Construction PMI in the UK fell to 54.2, against the forecast of 57.6. Today, the course of trading will be influenced by the data on service PMI (08:30 GMT). It is worth noting that investors are in no hurry to accumulate positions before tomorrow's parliamentary elections in the UK. Great influence on the outcome of the elections will have a little parties. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound is negative.

Currencies trading and the Japanese yen. The Japanese yen strengthened against the background of the fall of the US dollar, which was caused by unexpectedly weak data on the trade balance of the country. It is worth noting that in Japan is the day off and investors will return to the market only tomorrow. The dynamics of trading today will depend on the news on the labor market from the United States and the speech of the Fed chairman. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese yen, due to the difference in the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the United States.

Currencies trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has continued to grow in spite of the statistics on the growth of retail sales in the country by 0.3% in March, which is 0.1% worse than expected. Meanwhile, new home sales in March rose 4.4%. We recall that yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 0.25% to 2.00%, and noted the positive effect of previous rate cuts on household demand. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on the labor market of the country. Despite current growth, we expect a resumption of the downward movement of prices in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.

Currencies trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a sharp decline on weak statistics on the labor market in the country. Thus, employment has fallen to 0.7% in the first quarter, which is 0.5% less than the previous period, the unemployment rate was 5.8%, against an expected decline to 5.5%. Low prices for dairy products continue to put pressure on the New Zealand dollar. We expect a decrease in prices in the near future, but its potential decreased.

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