Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed decline amid a stronger US dollar against the background of positive expectations on the US labor market statistics publication today (12:30 GMT). In addition, today is worth paying attention to the data on the Eurozone’s retail PMI (8:10 GMT) and the volume of consumer credit in the US (19:00 GMT). We expect increased volatility today, and on Monday, investors will assess the impact of statistics on the trade balance of China on the global economy, and in case of positive data, interest in risky assets will grow, which will support the dollar. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound shows a slight decrease against the background of strengthening of US dollar. Today will not be published important statistics in the country. Next week, the focus of investors will be on the data on industrial production in the country, as well as the Bank of England’s decision on interest rates. According to our estimates, the country's exit from the EU fears will intensify in the coming weeks, which will lead to the fall of the British currency, but its growth is likely to resume after the referendum on 23 June.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen slightly changed despite the return of investors after a long weekend. The investors are in no hurry with action before the release of the US labor market report today (12:30 GMT). On Monday in Japan, will be published data on consumer confidence and the minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of Japan, which may lead to increased volatility. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and the strengthening of the yen is possible in case of a fall on the stock markets.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a sharp decline after the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its forecast for inflation to 1-2% by the end of 2016 against 2-3% previously. Expectations for GDP growth remained at the level of 2.5-3.5% in 2016. In addition, the negative impact on the price of the Australian dollar has had a drop in oil prices, in spite of the fires in Canada that threaten to reduce oil supplies to the market. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a decrease due to the fall of the Australian dollar, which traditionally affects the local currency, as well as the strengthening of the US dollar before today's publication of a report on the labor market in the country. The recent lowering of interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia increases the likelihood of such a move by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which will be negatively displayed on the quotes of NZD/USD. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and the current decline may continue in the near future.