06.05.2016 - Volatility may rise after labor market report in the US
US stock indexes yesterday have not changed due to the expectation of today's publication of an important report on the labor market in the US (12:30 GMT). In case of weak statistics, the decline in US markets accelerated. It is worth noting that the decline in oil prices resumed after yesterday's strong growth has raised fears of supply reduction due to forest fires in Canada. On Monday, investors will continue to evaluate the data on the labor market in the US, as well as trade data in China, which will be published at the weekend. We forecast a drop in US stock indexes in the coming months.
European stocks showed a slight decline after investors in Germany and France returned after the weekend yesterday. Negative for the local market was the news on reducing retail PMI in the Eurozone to 47.9, against 49.2 previously. On Monday, was published the data on the index of investor confidence in the Eurozone, but the dynamics of trading will depend more on the impact of statistics on the labor market in the US and China's trade surplus. Our medium-term outlook for European markets remains positive, but there is a high probability of falling of quotations in May, against the background of negative external influence and speculation about a possible exit of Great Britain from the EU.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a decline today against the background of a downward correction in the commodity markets, as well as investor caution ahead of today's publication of labor market data in the United States and the release of a report on China's trade surplus over the weekend. It is worth noting that Japanese stocks are under the pressure from the strengthening of the yen against the US dollar, which puts pressure on the incomes of exporters and the macroeconomic indicators of the country. The deterioration of the inflation outlook in Australia to 1-2% against 2-3% previously, also had a negative impact on the local market. The drop may continue in the near future, but the medium-term outlook remains positive.