06.06.2016 - The dollar fell amid weak statistics on the labor market
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed strong growth against the US dollar after in America was published extremely weak report on the labor market. Thus, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 38 thousand, vs. expected about 156 thousand. At the same time, the decline in unemployment by 0.3% to 4.7% was due to reduced workforce by 664 thousand. The news has led to a drop in the probability of raising interest rates in June, but we do not rule out such a move in July or September, against a background of rising inflation and a possible resumption of the positive momentum in the labor market in the US. Today, the focus will be on the speech of the Fed's chairwoman Janet Yellen (16:30 GMT), and earlier we should pay attention to the data on industrial production in Germany (06:00 GMT) and investors' confidence index in the euro area (08:30 GMT). Although the euro is likely to continue growing in the near future, we remain a medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound, after strong growth on Friday, caused by the fall in the US dollar showed a strong decline with a gap that was caused by the publication of the results of several surveys of voters in the country that have increased concerns about the country's possible exit from the EU structure. We recall that the referendum will take place on 23 June. The volatility in the coming weeks will remain elevated amid fears of the negative results on referendum in the country.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen showed strong growth against the US dollar after have been published weak data on the American labor market in May. On the one hand, this fact has led to the weakening of the US currency, and on the other has led to increased demand for defensive assets. It is worth noting that earlier in Japan, the Ministry of Finance stated its readiness to combat the yen's rise through intervention, but these steps will be negatively perceived by partner countries and especially by the United States. In case of a fall on the stock markets, the yen may continue to rise, but in the medium term we expect the dollar to strengthen and maintain a negative outlook on the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed steady growth due to the weakening dollar and rising commodity prices, which has traditionally supported the Australian currency. Today, investors will not rush to build up positions in relation to the expectation of future statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy. It should be noted that at the last meeting was lowered the key interest rate by 0.25%, but tomorrow we do not expect such a move. At the same time, the dynamics is still influenced by the US dollar and commodity prices. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has shown a rapid growth after some consolidation. This week will be volatile in connection with the publication of important news in Australia and China, which are major trading partners of New Zealand, but the central event will be the publication of the statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday night. We expect an early conclusion of the current rising impulse and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.