06.06.2016 - Volatility will be high this week
US stock indexes showed little change on Friday against the background of the controversial impact of statistics on the labor market in the country. Thus, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector of the United States increased by only 38 thousand, which was almost three times worse than analysts' forecasts, but on the other hand, the unemployment rate in the country decreased by 0.3% to 4.7%. This fact has led to the expectation of the Fed raising interest rates later, which supported the market, but the weakening of the positive momentum in the labor market threatens to increase the country's economy, which is negative for the stock indexes. Today is possible the increase of the activity of investors after the speech of the Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen (16:30 GMT). We see no reason for the continued growth on the US market in the near future and look forward to the beginning of a substantial correction in the near future.
European stock indexes are now showing moderate growth against the backdrop of increasing the value of shares in the mining industry after in the United States was published weak report on the labor market in the country. In addition, it is worth noting the weak data on new industrial orders in the Germany, which fell by 2.0% in April against the forecast of growth by 0.4%. At the same time the investor confidence index in the euro area in June rose to 9.9, against 6.2 in the previous month. On the UK market adversely affected concerns about the country’s exit from the EU after a referendum on the issue that will be held on 23 June. Tomorrow, the focus will be on data on GDP growth in the euro area. In the near future there is a risk of falling stock markets in Europe, but our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region today did not show uniform dynamics. The sharp strengthening of the yen against the US dollar was the main reason for the decline in Japan, but it is worth noting that the impact of the exchange rate has recently declined. Chinese markets supported the statement of the Chinese leader on the need for reform and intentions to achieve success on the cooperation agreement between the US and China issues as soon as possible. The Australian market has supported the growth of the shares of mining companies. Investors are waiting for the publication of important statistics on Wednesday on China's trade surplus and the growth of Japan's GDP. Risks remain elevated in the region, but our medium-term view remains optimistic.