06.08.2015 - Unemployment in Australia rose to 6.3%

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro corrected upward amid the weak data on the labor market and the US trade balance, which has led to a decrease in the US dollar. Thus, the number of jobs in the private sector from ADP grew by 185 thousand in July, compared with an expected 216 thousand. At the same time the trade deficit in the US rose to 43.8 billion in June, that is 1 billion worse than expected. On the other hand non-manufacturing PMI in the US rose by 4.0 to 60.3 in July. Negative for the euro was the fall in retail sales of 0.6%, against an expected decline of 0.1%. Today, investors' activity will be constrained by the expectation of the release of statistics on the labor market in the US, but little impact on the course of trading will have news on the retail PMI in the euro area (8:10 GMT) and the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (12:30 GMT). We expect a drop in prices of euro in the coming days and in the medium term.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound yesterday restored some of the previously lost positions and continued to consolidate near the levels of the previous day. Investors are waiting for today's statement of the Bank of England on monetary policy (11:00 GMT), which will be published together with the minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee and the forecasts on economic growth in the UK. Experts predict that two of the nine members of the committee will vote in favor of raising interest rates. Today is also necessary to pay attention to the important data on the volume of industrial production in June (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect strong price movement in the coming days.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen showed decline amid growing expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September, resulting in a further reduction of the Japanese currency against the US dollar. It is worth noting that the price has fallen despite the publication of strong statistics on the index of leading economic indicators that in June rose to 107.2%, which is 0.3% better than expected. Strong growth of volatility is forecasted tomorrow after a report on the US labor market. Our medium-term outlook for the yen is negative.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued its decline after a report on the labor market in the country. As a result, investors were disappointed by the weak data on unemployment, which in June rose to 6.3%, which is 0.2% more than analysts' forecasts. On the other hand the number of employees increased by 38.5 thousand. Tomorrow, we recommend paying attention to the report of the RBA on monetary policy and the labor market data in the US. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar reached a local minimum within a downtrend but could not overcome it and at the moment is corrected upward. Earlier this week was published a weak statistics on labor market in New Zealand, which has strengthened the confidence of traders in the further easing of monetary policy of the regulator this year. We see no reason for the for the change of current negative dynamics and forecast further decline in prices in the medium term.

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