06.10.2016 - American crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.0 million barrels per day

The price of gold continued to decline after recently has overcome the psychologically important level of 1300 dollars per troy ounce. Support for the bears was the positive statistics on the non-manufacturing PMI in the US, which rose to 57.1 in September against the forecast of 53.1. This fact points to an improvement in the US economy, and contributes to the Fed interest rates in December, which will have a negative impact on the attractiveness of gold compared with assets that generate interest income. According to our estimates, the speculation on this topic will put pressure on the gold price until December, but after this decision we will see a decrease on the stock markets to tighten monetary policy, which will increase the demand for defensive assets. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but in the coming months, the gold price will remain under the pressure.

The price Light Sweet crude oil continued its growth and was able to reach the psychologically important level of 50 per barrel. Support for prices has been the decline in US oil inventories last week by 3.0 million barrels against an expected increase of 1.1 million barrels. Investors continue to assess the possibility of reaching a final agreement on the reduction of oil production in OPEC to the level of 32,5-33,0 million barrels per day. This issue will be discussed at a meeting of OPEC on 30 November. According to our estimates, after a strong increase in the previous days, we expect a drop in prices in the near future and save the negative outlook for the coming months.

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