06.10.2016 - Consolidation on the market will continue before the strong movement
American stock indexes showed modest growth after was published strong data on US non-manufacturing PMI, which rose to 57.1, which is 4.0 more than the forecast. At the same time, the volume of factory orders rose in August by 0.2%, compared with a forecast decline of 0.4%. Today, investors will not rush to open new positions ahead of tomorrow's release of the report on the labor market in the US, which strongly affect market expectations on the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. In addition, we should pay attention to the speech of the Fed officials, which also can lead to increased volatility. According to our estimates, the growth potential is low and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the country's stock indices.
European stock markets today have changed significantly due to the uncertainty before tomorrow’s publication of important labor market data on the US, which strongly affect the dynamics of the global markets. Pressure on European indexes have concerns related on the UK’s exit from the EU, as well as speculation about the possibility of reducing the volume of the monthly volume of asset purchases in the euro area from the current level of 80 billion euro. We recall that the quantitative easing program ended in March 2017. Today, it is worth paying attention to the minutes of the previous meeting of the European Central Bank (11:30 GMT). Tomorrow we should pay attention to the production data in Germany and the UK. Our medium-term outlook for European index remains negative and we look forward to the beginning of the fall after the current consolidation.
Markets of the Asia Pacific region today showed growth against the background of the positive impact of growth of the US indices. Chinese markets will be closed until Monday. Support for Japanese export-oriented companies is the fall of the yen against the US dollar. Support for the Australian has become the market data on the trade balance of the country, the deficit of which totaled 2.01 billion vs. expected 2.32 billion. Tomorrow will be published data on the index of leading economic indicators in Japan. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but the yen's fall will support the Japanese market.