06.02.2014 - Markets expect Mario Draghi's speech
Yesterday, the trading session in the U.S. ended with a small decline of the major indexes. Broad U.S. market index S&P 500 continues to consolidate below 1760. The focus of traders was on the U.S. non-farm payrolls in January. Thus, the figure has increased by 175 thousand, but has not met expectations of analysts who predicted an increase by 191 thousand. U.S. non-manufacturing PMI increased to 54.0 against the forecast 53.6.
On this background, euro rose slightly, but the quotes continue to stay below the level of 1.3550. Today the course of trading will be affected by data on the retail PMI in the Eurozone (9:10 GMT), the German factory orders (11:00 GMT), the number of unemployment claims in the U.S. (15:30 GMT ) and the U.S. trade balance (13:30 GMT).
Today, the focus will be on the press conference of ECB head Mario Draghi on which will be announced further plans for monetary policy in the euro area. We do not expect changes in interest rates of ECB.
The British pound continues to consolidate below 1.6320. Yesterday, investors were disappointed by the data on service PMI, which fell to 58.3, with an expected growth to 59.1. Today, the course of trading will depend on the statements of the Bank of England on monetary policy. We expect that the interest rate and the amount of asset purchases of the central bank of the country will remain at the same levels.
USD/JPY continues to move within the local downstream channel. Further price movement will depend on the level of unemployment in the U.S., which will be published tomorrow. We expect that in the long term the yen will continue to depreciate against the U.S. dollar.
The price of AUD/USD has fixed above the strong level of 0.89. The reason for the growth was the RBA statement on intention not to reduce the interest rates in the near future. At the same time, the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia is soft enough. We maintain a long-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
The price of gold rose slightly against decrease of the U.S. stock market. The bulls were supported by the fact that today is the first working day in China after the New Year celebration. Volatility in gold prices is decreasing, but we expect a strong movement tomorrow, after the release of data on U.S. unemployment.
The quotes of Light Sweet crude oil rose slightly on the report on oil and petroleum products in the U.S. Thus, crude oil inventories increased less than expected - by 0.4 million barrels, against the forecast of growth by 2.2 million Reserves of distillers decreased by 2.36 million barrels. We maintain a long-term negative outlook for oil due to the fact that the growth rate of oil production in the United States exceeds the growth rate of consumption. In addition, the quotes are under the pressure of growth in oil supplies from the Middle East.