06.08.2014 - The US dollar has strengthened
The price of euro yesterday fell back against the strengthening of the dollar after the publication of data on the growth of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector of the United States to its highest level since 2005, 58.7, against an expected growth to 56.6. In addition, the of factory orders also increased by 1.1% in June, against the expected growth of 0.6%. In the euro zone, the index of business activity in the services sector in July fell by 0.2 to 54.2. Today, the dynamics of trading on the market will depend on the statistics on volume of factory orders in Germany (06:00 GMT), the retail PMI of the euro area (8:10 GMT) and the US trade balance (12:30 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook, but expect low volatility of trading in the expectation of tomorrow's ECB statement.
The price of the British pound rose slightly yesterday. Statistics on the growth of the service PMI in July to 59.1, which is better than the forecast of growth to 58.1 and is the highest figure since November. Growth was restrained by a statement of the international rating agency Moody's, which downgraded the outlook for the British banking system from stable to negative due to the deteriorating outlook for 6 largest financial institutions of the country. We maintain our positive medium-term outlook for the pound with the objectives of 1.72 and 1.73.
The price of the Japanese yen, despite the strengthening of the dollar, continues to consolidate near yesterday's levels. On the one hand loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the strengthening of the dollar contribute to the devaluation of the yen, but on the other hand, demand for the currency remains high due to geopolitical tensions in the world. Today, the course of trading may be affected by the data on the index of leading economic indicators (05:00 GMT). In the medium term, we expect the price of the yen to continue devaluation.
The Australian dollar was unable to continue the upward movement after yesterday's statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia and began to fall after a strong data on non-manufacturing PMI in the United States. We recall that in the RBA have left interest rates unchanged at 2.50%, and noted the positive dynamics of the labor market of the country. Tomorrow is expected the increase of volatility in connection with the release of data on the labor market in the country. The medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative.
The New Zealand dollar, after a long period of low volatility today showed a sharp decline on the background of data on the labor market in the country. Thus, despite the drop in the unemployment rate to its lowest level since 2009 - 5.6% in the second quarter, which is 0.2% worse than forecast, investors were disappointed by the statistics on employment change. Thus, the index rose by only 0.4%, which is lower than the forecast of 0.7% and the previous figure of 0.9%. We expect further decline to the level of 0.8400, after which we can see a correction.