07.03.2016 - Data on the US labor market was contradictory
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro rose on Friday amid conflicting statistics on the US labor market. Thus, the unemployment rate remained at around 4.9%, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 242 thousand in February, which was better than the forecast 195 thousand. Despite this, investors were disappointed by statistics on average hourly wages, which declined by 0.1% against the expected growth of 0.2% in February. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on industrial orders in Germany (07:00 GMT), the index of investor confidence in the Eurozone (09:30 GMT), as well as the speech of the deputy chairman of the Fed Stanley Fischer (18:00 GMT). The central event of the week will be the ECB meeting at which may decide on the lowering of interest rates on deposits by 0.1% to -0.4%, and increase the amount of monthly asset purchases within the quantitative easing by 10-20 billion euros. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a price drop this week.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound rose on Friday amid weakening US dollar after the release of statistics on the labor market, but could not continue to grow, and according to our estimates will decrease in the near future. Today, in the country will not be published important statistics and the dynamics of trading will depend on the external factors. The growth of quotations in the coming months is limited due to the expectation of a referendum on the country's membership in the European Union, and the speculation regarding this issue will keep volatility high. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but after the referendum, we expect growth of the pound.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of Japanese yen continues to consolidate despite the increased volatility of prices of other world currencies. After a long consolidation, we will probably see a strong price movement. Tomorrow we should pay attention to important data on the growth of Japan's GDP in the 4th quarter and the balance of payments of the country. This information can be a trigger for a strong price movement. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar is corrected after a strong growth in the previous days, which was due to the positive dynamics in commodity markets, which have a key influence for the Australian economy. It is worth noting that tomorrow will be published statistics on the index of sentiment in the business circles of the country. Strong influence on the dynamics of the national currency of Australia will have data from China and the dynamics of commodity prices. We forecast a drop in the medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to rise against the background of higher commodities’ prices. Investors this week are waiting for the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on interest rate. Given the fall in inflation in the country by 0.1%, is likely to soften the monetary policy of the country on Wednesday evening. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and we expect a drop in prices this week.